ESA PADRE Analysis Results
Summary - Per Component Impact Probability
Test case: Example SAMj Controlled Component-Centric Vehicle Re-entry
Demonstration of the PADRE spacecraft assessment mode. This analysis simulated the
destructive re-entry of a 1000kg component-centric vehicle, modelled as a relatively
simple structore comprising approximately 40 components. Re-entry is predicted from
a circular sun-synchronous orbit of 130km altitude using SAMj. Uncertainties in the
initial state vector, atmosphere density, material properties, drag and heating
coefficients are considered. A standard Monte-Carlo of between 1000 simulations has
been executed.
Status
- Analysis started: 2025-08-05 12:18:50
- Last updated: 2025-08-05 16:29:41
- Elapsed time: 15050 secs
- Simulation count: 1000
- Batch count: 4
- Analysis complete: True
Per Component Impact Probability
95% confidence limit of Prob(casualty risk): 0.03
| # | Component | Pr(survives) | No Risk Data Set | At Risk Data Set |
|---|
| Mean Alt (km) | Low Alt (km) | Details | Pr(atomic) | Pr(compound) | Pr(contained) | Details |
|---|
| 0 | ARRAY1 | 0.00 |
94 | 88 | View | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown |
None |
| 1 | ARRAY2 | 0.00 |
94 | 88 | View | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown |
None |
| 2 | ARRAY3 | 0.00 |
94 | 88 | View | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown |
None |
| 3 | BAFFLE | 0.00 |
88 | 83 | View | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown |
None |
| 4 | BAFSUP | 0.40 |
78 | 68 | View | 1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
View |
| 5 | BENCH | 1.00 |
Unknown | Unknown | None | 0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00 |
View |
| 6 | CAVTUB | 1.00 |
Unknown | Unknown | None | 0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00 |
View |
| 7 | CMGB | 1.00 |
Unknown | Unknown | None | 1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
View |
| 8 | COMEC | 1.00 |
Unknown | Unknown | None | 1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
View |
| 9 | COMEE | 0.00 |
85 | 79 | View | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown |
None |
| # | Component | Pr(survives) | No Risk Data Set | At Risk Data Set |
|---|
| Mean Alt (km) | Low Alt (km) | Details | Pr(atomic) | Pr(compound) | Pr(contained) | Details |
|---|
| 10 | CONE | 0.00 |
90 | 84 | View | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown |
None |
| 11 | DUMMY | 0.00 |
84 | 76 | View | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown |
None |
| 12 | EPC | 0.00 |
83 | 74 | View | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown |
None |
| 13 | EPTHST | 0.00 |
83 | 74 | View | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown |
None |
| 14 | EPTNK | 1.00 |
Unknown | Unknown | None | 1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
View |
| 15 | FLOOR1 | 0.00 |
89 | 83 | View | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown |
None |
| 16 | FLOOR2 | 0.19 |
84 | 76 | View | 1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
View |
| 17 | FLOOR3 | 0.30 |
82 | 73 | View | 1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
View |
| 18 | FOCAL | 1.00 |
Unknown | Unknown | None | 0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00 |
View |
| 19 | ISMC | 1.00 |
Unknown | Unknown | None | 1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
View |
| # | Component | Pr(survives) | No Risk Data Set | At Risk Data Set |
|---|
| Mean Alt (km) | Low Alt (km) | Details | Pr(atomic) | Pr(compound) | Pr(contained) | Details |
|---|
| 20 | ISME | 0.00 |
80 | 72 | View | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown |
None |
| 21 | MIRROR | 1.00 |
Unknown | Unknown | None | 0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00 |
View |
| 22 | MTQCR | 0.17 |
65 | 56 | View | 1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
View |
| 23 | MTQCU | 0.00 |
79 | 74 | View | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown |
None |
| 24 | MTQE | 0.00 |
87 | 82 | View | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown |
None |
| 25 | PANEL1 | 0.00 |
89 | 83 | View | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown |
None |
| 26 | PANEL2 | 0.00 |
89 | 83 | View | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown |
None |
| 27 | PANEL3 | 0.00 |
89 | 83 | View | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown |
None |
| 28 | PANEL4 | 0.00 |
89 | 83 | View | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown |
None |
| 29 | PANEL5 | 0.00 |
89 | 83 | View | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown |
None |
| # | Component | Pr(survives) | No Risk Data Set | At Risk Data Set |
|---|
| Mean Alt (km) | Low Alt (km) | Details | Pr(atomic) | Pr(compound) | Pr(contained) | Details |
|---|
| 30 | PANEL6 | 0.00 |
89 | 83 | View | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown |
None |
| 31 | PCDUC | 1.00 |
Unknown | Unknown | None | 1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
View |
| 32 | PCDUE | 0.00 |
81 | 74 | View | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown |
None |
| 33 | PM25S | 0.01 |
79 | 67 | View | 1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
View |
| 34 | RWBBU | 0.13 |
61 | 47 | View | 1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
View |
| 35 | RWE | 0.00 |
85 | 77 | View | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown |
None |
| 36 | RWFW | 0.84 |
65 | 59 | View | 1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
View |
| 37 | TRUSS1 | 1.00 |
Unknown | Unknown | None | 1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
View |
| 38 | TRUSS2 | 0.99 |
62 | 55 | View | 0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00 |
View |
| 39 | VPUC | 1.00 |
Unknown | Unknown | None | 1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
View |
| # | Component | Pr(survives) | No Risk Data Set | At Risk Data Set |
|---|
| Mean Alt (km) | Low Alt (km) | Details | Pr(atomic) | Pr(compound) | Pr(contained) | Details |
|---|
| 40 | VPUE | 0.00 |
78 | 68 | View | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown |
None |
ESA PADRE 2025