ESA PADRE Analysis Results

Summary - At Risk / BAFSUP

Test case: Example SAMj Controlled Component-Centric Vehicle Re-entry

Demonstration of the PADRE spacecraft assessment mode. This analysis simulated the destructive re-entry of a 1000kg component-centric vehicle, modelled as a relatively simple structore comprising approximately 40 components. Re-entry is predicted from a circular sun-synchronous orbit of 130km altitude using SAMj. Uncertainties in the initial state vector, atmosphere density, material properties, drag and heating coefficients are considered. A standard Monte-Carlo of between 1000 simulations has been executed.

Status

• Analysis started: 2025-08-05 12:18:50
• Last updated: 2025-08-05 16:29:41
• Elapsed time: 15050 secs
• Simulation count: 1000
• Batch count: 4
• Analysis complete: True

Detailed Results for Component: BAFSUP, Data Set: At Risk

Overview

• Number of samples surviving to ground impact: 403 (40% of simulations)
• 95% confidence limit of surviving to ground: 0.03
• Number of samples impacting as an atomic object: 403 (100% of impacts)
• Number of samples impacting as a compound object: 0 (0% of impacts)
• Number of samples impacting as a contained child object: 0 (0% of impacts)

The following distributions include results for all components that impact the ground, including those that are atomic components, part of a compound fragment or are unreleased and contained within another component

ESA PADRE 2025