Demonstration of the PADRE spacecraft assessment mode. This analysis simulated the destructive re-entry of a 1000kg component-centric vehicle, modelled as a relatively simple structore comprising approximately 40 components. Re-entry is predicted from a circular sun-synchronous orbit of 130km altitude using the DRAMA v3.0.4 version of SESAM. Uncertainties in the initial true anomaly, atmosphere density, material properties, drag and heating coefficients are considered. A standard Monte-Carlo of between 2000 and 5000 simulations has been executed.
Probability of compliance with 1e-4 risk: 1.00 (95% confidence interval of compliance: 0.98 - 1.00)
| Gaussian Fit | Beta Fit |
|---|---|
| Mean: 0.75 (+/- 0.0022 / 0.0022) Standard deviation: 0.05 (+/- 0.0016 / 0.0015) | Location: 0.51 Scale: 1.7e+05 Beta A: 25 Beta B: 1.8e+07 |
Probability of compliance with 1e-4 risk: 1.00 (95% confidence interval of compliance: 0.98 - 1.00)
| Gaussian Fit | Beta Fit |
|---|---|
| Mean: 0.71 (+/- 0.002 / 0.002) Standard deviation: 0.046 (+/- 0.0015 / 0.0014) | Location: -1.3 Scale: 2.1 Beta A: 1.5e+02 Beta B: 13 |
| Gaussian Fit | Beta Fit |
|---|---|
| Mean: 6 (+/- 0.018 / 0.018) Standard deviation: 0.42 (+/- 0.013 / 0.013) | Location: 4.2 Scale: 1e+04 Beta A: 23 Beta B: 1.3e+05 |
| Gaussian Fit | Beta Fit |
|---|---|
| Location: -2.7e-26 Scale: 9.6e-26 Beta A: 0.99 Beta B: 1 |
ESA PADRE 2021