Demonstration of the PADRE spacecraft assessment mode. This analysis simulated the destructive re-entry of a 1000kg component-centric vehicle, modelled as a relatively simple structore comprising approximately 40 components. Re-entry is predicted from a circular sun-synchronous orbit of 130km altitude using SAMj. Uncertainties in the initial state vector, atmosphere density, material properties, drag and heating coefficients are considered. A standard Monte-Carlo of between 1000 simulations has been executed.
Probability of compliance with 1e-4 risk: 0.40 (95% confidence interval of compliance: 0.37 - 0.43)
| Gaussian Fit | Beta Fit |
|---|---|
| Mean: 2 (+/- 0.12 / 0.12) Standard deviation: 2 (+/- 0.09 / 0.083) | Location: -1.2e-31 Scale: 21 Beta A: 0.81 Beta B: 13 |
Probability of compliance with 1e-4 risk: 0.42 (95% confidence interval of compliance: 0.39 - 0.45)
| Gaussian Fit | Beta Fit |
|---|---|
| Mean: 1.9 (+/- 0.12 / 0.12) Standard deviation: 1.9 (+/- 0.089 / 0.082) | Location: -2.4e-31 Scale: 30 Beta A: 0.33 Beta B: 9.5 |
| Gaussian Fit | Beta Fit |
|---|---|
| Mean: 21 (+/- 0.094 / 0.094) Standard deviation: 1.5 (+/- 0.07 / 0.064) | Location: 18 Scale: 7.3 Beta A: 0.58 Beta B: 1.1 |
ESA PADRE 2025