ESA PADRE Analysis Results


Test case: Example DRAMA Uncontrolled Component-Centric Vehicle Re-entry

Demonstration of the PADRE spacecraft assessment mode. This analysis simulated the destructive re-entry of a 1000kg component-centric vehicle, modelled as a relatively simple structore comprising approximately 40 components. Re-entry is predicted from a circular sun-synchronous orbit of 130km altitude using the DRAMA v3.0.4 version of SESAM. Uncertainties in the initial true anomaly, atmosphere density, material properties, drag and heating coefficients are considered. A standard Monte-Carlo of between 2000 and 5000 simulations has been executed.

Status

Configuration

Total Fragment Count

Gaussian FitBeta Fit
Mean: 6 (+/- 0.033 / 0.033)
Standard deviation: 0.76 (+/- 0.024 / 0.023)
Location: 2.9
Scale: 1.4e+06
Beta A: 18
Beta B: 8.6e+06

PDF/CDF data (download)
Centile data (download)

Total Component Count

Gaussian FitBeta Fit
Mean: 7 (+/- 0.033 / 0.033)
Standard deviation: 0.76 (+/- 0.024 / 0.023)
Location: 4.2
Scale: 1.6e+06
Beta A: 14
Beta B: 8e+06

PDF/CDF data (download)
Centile data (download)


ESA PADRE 2021