ESA PADRE Analysis Results


Test case: Example SAMj Controlled Component-Centric Vehicle Re-entry

Demonstration of the PADRE spacecraft assessment mode. This analysis simulated the destructive re-entry of a 1000kg component-centric vehicle, modelled as a relatively simple structore comprising approximately 40 components. Re-entry is predicted from a circular sun-synchronous orbit of 130km altitude using SAMj. Uncertainties in the initial state vector, atmosphere density, material properties, drag and heating coefficients are considered. A standard Monte-Carlo of between 1000 simulations has been executed.

Status

Configuration

Total Fragment Count

Gaussian FitBeta Fit
Mean: 27 (+/- 0.12 / 0.12)
Standard deviation: 1.9 (+/- 0.087 / 0.08)
Location: 25
Scale: 8.1
Beta A: 0.38
Beta B: 1

PDF/CDF data (download)
Centile data (download)

Total Component Count

Gaussian FitBeta Fit
Mean: 30 (+/- 0.12 / 0.12)
Standard deviation: 1.9 (+/- 0.087 / 0.08)
Location: 27
Scale: 8
Beta A: 0.49
Beta B: 1.1

PDF/CDF data (download)
Centile data (download)


ESA PADRE 2025