ESA PADRE Analysis Results

Overview | Fragment Composition

Test case: Example SAMj Controlled Component-Centric Vehicle Re-entry

Demonstration of the PADRE spacecraft assessment mode. This analysis simulated the destructive re-entry of a 1000kg component-centric vehicle, modelled as a relatively simple structore comprising approximately 40 components. Re-entry is predicted from a circular sun-synchronous orbit of 130km altitude using SAMj. Uncertainties in the initial state vector, atmosphere density, material properties, drag and heating coefficients are considered. A standard Monte-Carlo of between 1000 simulations has been executed.

Status

Configuration

Description

The following tables describe the composition of fragments that impact the ground. Details of compound fragments (those comprising several linked geometric primitives) and atomic fragments made up of a single primitive are listed separately. In both cases fragments are listed in order of descending probability of impact. For both compound and atomic fragments an overall table detailing the expected fragment area, casualty area and landed mass, inclusive of the probability of impact is provided. This is followed by a second table that details the profile of the fragment area, casualty area, landed mass and energy exclusive of the probability of impact (i.e. only considering the data set comprising those instances where the fragment actually survives).

Compound Fragments

Profile of fragments impacting the ground with connected-to peers or unreleased child components.

Aggregate Fragment Profile

The probability of impact and expected values of fragment area, casualty area and mass based on the number of fragments on vehicle and probability of impact

Frag# Pr(survive) Fragment Count Casualty Area (m^2) Fragment Area (m^2) Mass (kg) Components
InitialImpact
1 1.000 1 1.00 2.46 0.939 35.60 CAVTUB,MIRROR
2 0.993 1 0.99 2.43 0.925 40.93 BENCH,FOCAL,TRUSS2
3 0.007 1 0.01 0.02 0.006 0.27 BENCH,FOCAL

Specific Fragment Profile

Profile of the magnitude of each impact of the specific fragment configuration in terms of fragment area, casualty area, mass and energy

Frag# Casualty Area (m^2) Fragment Area (m^2) Mass (kg) Energy (kJ) Components
5%Mean95% 5%Mean95% 5%Mean95% 5%Mean95%
1 2.461 2.461 2.461 0.939 0.939 0.939 35.60 35.60 35.60 19.60 23.55 28.60 CAVTUB,MIRROR
2 2.450 2.450 2.450 0.932 0.932 0.932 40.17 41.22 42.25 30.30 36.75 44.86 BENCH,FOCAL,TRUSS2
3 2.326 2.326 2.326 0.856 0.856 0.856 38.86 39.14 39.34 30.74 35.34 40.81 BENCH,FOCAL

Atomic Fragments

Fragments impacting the ground as a single component with no peers or unreleased children.

Aggregate Fragment Profile

The probability of impact and expected values of fragment area, casualty area and mass based on the number of fragments on vehicle and probability of impact

Frag# Pr(survive) Fragment Count Casualty Area (m^2) Fragment Area (m^2) Mass (kg) Components
InitialImpact
1 1.000 7 7.00 4.43 0.268 7.83 VPUC
2 1.000 5 5.00 3.23 0.208 5.21 PCDUC
3 1.000 5 5.00 3.08 0.171 4.84 ISMC
4 1.000 3 3.00 1.93 0.124 3.98 COMEC
5 1.000 1 1.00 0.75 0.072 2.30 EPTNK
6 1.000 1 1.00 0.63 0.037 8.26 CMGB
7 1.000 1 1.00 0.49 0.010 0.29 TRUSS1
8 0.845 1 0.84 0.47 0.018 1.20 RWFW
9 0.403 1 0.40 0.31 0.031 0.34 BAFSUP
10 0.302 1 0.30 0.27 0.035 0.24 FLOOR3
11 0.194 1 0.19 0.18 0.027 0.12 FLOOR2
12 0.165 1 0.17 0.07 0.001 0.03 MTQCR
13 0.126 1 0.13 0.05 0.000 0.01 RWBBU
14 0.012 1 0.01 0.01 0.000 0.00 PM25S

Specific Fragment Profile

Profile of the magnitude of each impact of the specific fragment configuration in terms of fragment area, casualty area, mass and energy

Frag# Casualty Area (m^2) Fragment Area (m^2) Mass (kg) Energy (kJ) Components
5%Mean95% 5%Mean95% 5%Mean95% 5%Mean95%
11 0.792 0.947 1.162 0.084 0.139 0.228 0.29 0.63 1.28 0.02 0.05 0.13 FLOOR2
10 0.691 0.881 1.144 0.053 0.114 0.221 0.23 0.79 1.97 0.02 0.10 0.30 FLOOR3
9 0.589 0.773 0.968 0.028 0.078 0.147 0.17 0.85 2.02 0.02 0.17 0.47 BAFSUP
6 0.755 0.755 0.755 0.072 0.072 0.072 2.30 2.30 2.30 1.08 1.30 1.58 EPTNK
3 0.644 0.646 0.647 0.041 0.042 0.042 1.02 1.04 1.05 0.38 0.46 0.57 PCDUC
4 0.604 0.645 0.655 0.031 0.041 0.044 0.87 1.33 1.45 0.41 0.76 0.99 COMEC
1 0.616 0.633 0.636 0.034 0.038 0.039 0.94 1.12 1.15 0.43 0.58 0.73 VPUC
5 0.534 0.629 0.655 0.017 0.037 0.044 2.48 8.26 10.30 6.61 34.18 52.39 CMGB
2 0.598 0.616 0.619 0.030 0.034 0.035 0.79 0.97 1.00 0.35 0.49 0.61 ISMC
14 0.552 0.575 0.609 0.021 0.025 0.032 0.14 0.20 0.29 0.02 0.03 0.04 PM25S
8 0.432 0.556 0.604 0.003 0.021 0.031 0.08 1.42 2.30 0.03 1.76 3.46 RWFW
7 0.485 0.488 0.491 0.009 0.010 0.010 0.27 0.29 0.30 0.12 0.15 0.18 TRUSS1
12 0.399 0.431 0.466 0.001 0.003 0.007 0.03 0.21 0.58 0.02 0.26 0.91 MTQCR
13 0.381 0.394 0.413 0.000 0.001 0.002 0.02 0.09 0.26 0.02 0.18 0.77 RWBBU

ESA PADRE 2025