ESA PADRE Analysis Results

Summary - Per Fragment Vehicle Risk

Test case: Example SAMj Controlled Component-Centric Vehicle Re-entry

Demonstration of the PADRE spacecraft assessment mode. This analysis simulated the destructive re-entry of a 1000kg component-centric vehicle, modelled as a relatively simple structore comprising approximately 40 components. Re-entry is predicted from a circular sun-synchronous orbit of 130km altitude using SAMj. Uncertainties in the initial state vector, atmosphere density, material properties, drag and heating coefficients are considered. A standard Monte-Carlo of between 1000 simulations has been executed.

Status

Configuration

Per Fragment 2D Casualty Risk

Gaussian FitBeta Fit
Mean: 9 (+/- 0.33 / 0.33)
Standard deviation: 18 (+/- 0.24 / 0.23)		Location: -22
Scale: 8e+14
Beta A: 11
Beta B: 2.9e+14

PDF/CDF data (download)
Centile data (download)

Per Fragment 2D Fatality Risk

Gaussian FitBeta Fit
Mean: 8.4 (+/- 0.33 / 0.33)
Standard deviation: 18 (+/- 0.24 / 0.23)		Location: -3.4e-21
Scale: 2.2e+03
Beta A: 0.47
Beta B: 5e+02

PDF/CDF data (download)
Centile data (download)

Per Fragment Casualty Area

Gaussian FitBeta Fit
Mean: 0.97 (+/- 0.013 / 0.013)
Standard deviation: 0.71 (+/- 0.0095 / 0.0092)		Location: 0.18
Scale: 2.3
Beta A: 0.024
Beta B: 0.1

PDF/CDF data (download)
Centile data (download)

Per Fragment Fragment Area

Gaussian FitBeta Fit
Mean: 0.11 (+/- 0.0028 / 0.0028)
Standard deviation: 0.23 (+/- 0.002 / 0.002)		Location: 0.00027
Scale: 2.9
Beta A: 0.66
Beta B: 17

PDF/CDF data (download)
Centile data (download)

ESA PADRE 2025