ESA PADRE Analysis Results

Summary - Per Fragment Vehicle Risk

Test case: Example SAMj Controlled Component-Centric Vehicle Re-entry

Demonstration of the PADRE spacecraft assessment mode. This analysis simulated the destructive re-entry of a 1000kg component-centric vehicle, modelled as a relatively simple structore comprising approximately 40 components. Re-entry is predicted from a circular sun-synchronous orbit of 130km altitude using SAMj. Uncertainties in the initial state vector, atmosphere density, material properties, drag and heating coefficients are considered. A standard Monte-Carlo of between 1000 simulations has been executed.

Status

Analysis started: 2025-08-05 12:18:50
Last updated: 2025-08-05 16:29:41
Elapsed time: 15050 secs
Simulation count: 1000
Batch count: 4
Analysis complete: True

Configuration

Analysis configuration: View / Download
Uncertainties configuration: View / Download

Per Fragment Landed Mass

Gaussian Fit	Beta Fit
Mean: 4.1 (+/- 0.12 / 0.12) Standard deviation: 9.8 (+/- 0.084 / 0.082)	Location: 0.015 Scale: 8.7e+02 Beta A: 0.56 Beta B: 1.2e+02

PDF/CDF data (download)
Centile data (download)

Per Fragment Impact Energy

Gaussian Fit	Beta Fit
Mean: 4e+03 (+/- 1.2e+02 / 1.2e+02) Standard deviation: 1e+04 (+/- 88 / 87)	Location: 15 Scale: 6.2e+05 Beta A: 0.38 Beta B: 59

PDF/CDF data (download)
Centile data (download)

ESA PADRE 2025